The world has changed dramatically over the past few months, even as it was changing in the last decade. New blood is much harder to come by in the world of IBM i. Companies need to be proactive rather than reactive and take the time now to examine who their next hires will be—and where those people might come from. The changing economy won't make the task any easier.

In early December 2008, System iNEWS editor Rita-Lyn Sanders and I briefly discussed what the System i market might offer in 2009. I off-handedly commented, "This is my seventh recession. They are all the same and yet they are all different." Her immediate reply, "How so? What does that mean?"

Lesson One: Spring is coming. As I finish this piece, it's January 9. Here in Iowa, the afternoon turned colder and freezing rain mixed with snow. The forecast for next week calls for highs in the single digits. But, the days are getting longer; spring will come again! Correct?

Lesson Two: There are things you can't control. The broad market indexes and funds are down 25 to 45 percent for the year. The Dow Jones Industrials closed this afternoon at 8599.18, down more than 400 points for the week or nearly five percent. It was its worst week since late November. The Labor Department announced employment figures for December 2008. Employers had cut another 524,000 jobs, bringing the total loss for the year to 2.6 million. The unemployment rate rose from 6.8 percent to 7.2 percent, matching a rate not seen since early 1993 or the waning months of the 1982 recession. With less than two weeks until the inauguration, president-elect Obama just outlined his proposed stimulus package. It is a staggering $800 billion with a projected budget deficit for 2009 of $1.2 trillion. While those numbers are volatile, still very unpredictable, and will be different when you read this, "this too shall pass."

Globalization is here to stay. The events of 2008 remind us of the speed in which we all became an interconnected part of the global economy and global marketplace and the vulnerability of that linkage. We are both investors and citizens, two sharply different roles. As a nation and individuals, we are now reexamining that tension.

Lesson Three: Side interests can be new directions. For those under age 50, you've only heard the stories of the 1970s and early 1980s. I graduated from Iowa State University in 1968 (I'm 63 today), was immediately drafted, did a tour in Vietnam, and then went back to graduate school in 1970. I had to learn some FORTRAN to fix my project's non-working code—free from another professor—and wrote my thesis using the new word processing software running on the university's IBM 370. I was hooked and opened a personal computing account. The full significance of doing that wasn't clear until much later. In 1971, I was recruited for a local sales job by an older acquaintance and mentor from church who was expanding his business. It was a very different career direction, and I enthusiastically plunged into learning and growing my career.

Lesson Four: Economic cycles aren't new. It was the tail end of the recession of 1970-1971. Those had been tough economic times, but I was just starting my career and had no clue! By 1972, most of the 550,000 troops that were in Vietnam between 1967 and 1970 were home. Many of us used our G.I. benefits to finish college or graduate school. Now we were back in the workforce and spending money on new cars, our first homes, and lots of consumer goods. The economy was booming again.

Then came the recession of 1973-1974, brought on in part by the crisis of the Arab-Israeli conflict, OPEC, and the oil embargo. We had the first lines at gas pumps. During the recovery of the mid-1970s, inflation became a growing concern. The Federal Reserve slowly raised its short-term rates from 5 percent to 10 percent, but by early 1980 rates soared above 15 percent. Few of us were overly concerned, despite cautions from our Depression-era parents and grandparents. We had another oil crisis and short recession. Americans were held hostage in Iran.

Lesson Five: Adversity is often just disguised opportunity. By mid-1980, the Fed briefly lowered interest rates to 9 percent to stimulate the recovery, but the inflation rate continued to climb even as job losses mounted. By early 1981, Fed rates were bouncing between 15 percent and 19 percent. The banks' prime rate rose to over 21 percent, 30-year government bonds had a face rate of 15 percent, home mortgages were "available" at rates over 16 percent, agricultural land values plummeted while real estate sales stalled except in oil producing states, and the unemployment rate crossed above 10 percent. The protracted recession lasted to the end of 1982. Nearly bankrupt, Chrysler received a $2 billion emergency loan from the government and recruited Lee Iacocca as its CEO. He birthed the minivan and repaid the loan early. The escalating savings and loan crisis soon required a $500 billion rescue, but ultimately the net cost to taxpayers was reduced to $125 billion.

The two painful recessions in the early 1980s set the stage for an economic expansion that extended to the fourth quarter of 2007. However, it had some interruptions. In October 1987 the DOW dropped 22 percent on what is known as Black Monday. Then came the recession of the early 1990s. Defense-related industries changed direction following the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 and the final collapse of the Soviet Union on December 25, 1991. And as IT professionals, who could forget the 2001-2002 recession associated with 9-11, the end of Y2K, the dot-com bust, and the scandals of Enron and WorldCom.

But getting back to 1982, that was also the year I was forced to switch careers. While looking for sales options through employment agencies, I was recruited by three different owners to be a recruiter instead. They were expanding! I said "yes" to the one offering the IT specialty. One of my very first candidates and placements was someone with the new System/38 experience. As they say, "The rest is history!"

Lesson Six: Experience matters (System i opportunities and challenges). Figure 1 depicts the shift in years of experience among IBM i technical staff that has occurred between 1999 and 2008. Those with more than 30 years of IT experience often started in other careers prior to 1980 and are at or approaching retirement. Many of them will have to be replaced, and soon.

Figure 2 compares entry-level hiring between 1999 and 2008. Data for those with less than one year of experience is difficult to gauge and unreliable. That said, entry-level hiring for the System i was already slowing in the late 1990s and has continued downward this decade. For managers, the recession is an opportunity to bring in IT staff with non-System i skills or to promote into IT from other departments. For the existing staff with less than 15 years of experience, you will have opportunities for promotions, internally or externally, with really good companies, and with less competition than even three or four years ago. For readers who are exploring the System i platform as a career option, it's a great time to enter. One example is the recently announced partnership between IBM and DeVry University, which will give students experience with all four IBM server platforms, including IBM i.

Figure 3 depicts a similar experience shift for the hiring of managers. While one's retirement date has elasticity, expect to find an increasing number of retirement-driven openings for senior-level management roles, positions that will be filled both internally and externally. In addition, the low level of entry-level hiring in the last 10 years (Figure 2) also means far fewer technical staff are available or ready for senior development roles or first-tier management positions. In smaller IT departments, managers will attempt to promote from within, but that person may fail and then be replaced from the outside. That was the case with the System/38 expansions in the mid-1980s and again with the AS/400 in the early 1990s.

CIOs and department heads will have access to a large and growing talent pool of retirees. Be creative. Find ways to structure reduced hours, shorter work weeks, and remote contract services for those who want to remain active but not be full-time employees. Internally, provide the mechanisms for older managers to become mentors to entry-level and younger staff and new supervisors.

Lesson Seven: Women have a secret. The next several years will present great opportunities for women, both in the IBM i world and the broader IT field. Figure 4 is a composite of data I have collected that depicts what has happened to enrollment in technology majors (not midrange specific) at Midwest universities. While enrollment for males dropped about 50 percent in the last decade, females have disappeared. Their numbers are down 85 percent or more from 1999-2000 peaks. Some larger corporations began discovering this in 2007. Smaller companies are still in the dark. For managers, get aggressive about hiring qualified females now. Create a fast track into senior analyst and management roles. Find ways to add or increase flexibility. Women are still primary caregivers, so make it easier for them to continue to work.

Demographic shifts with Boomer retirements and the lower young adult population are already in place. Attitudes about work-life balance are changing. The next expansion cycle will come.

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
—William Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, Act IV

"Seize your opportunities."

Nate Viall is a national recruiter and analyst in the IBM i market. He began recruiting for the IBM midrange platform (System/38) in 1982 and formed his own company, Nate Viall & Associates, in 1987. He is quoted frequently as an industry resource and has written numerous articles on national IBM midrange salary and career trends. Google "Nate Viall" for additional resources.