UK was a Power i sales bright spot in 2009

Article ID: 64806

IBM reported some relatively robust end-of-year results last week and said that revenues from what it calls its "converged System p products" were down by 14% in the last quarter of 2009 compared to the year before.

As is usual nowadays, Big Blue did not reveal the Power i numbers hidden within this figure. But iNEWSWire UK can offer some insight to how the i fared last year courtesy of analysts Gartner and IDC.

For instance, according to Gartner, the Power i platform performed extremely well in the UK in the third quarter of 2009. Gartner says that sales of Power Systems specifically running IBM i OS in EMEA declined by just 5.2% compared to the same period last year and in the UK sales actually grew by a hefty 40%. And while sales of Power Systems as a whole in EMEA were down by 14% in Q309, in the UK they grew by 10.4%.

While it won't release complete end-of-year estimates until next month, IDC has rolled together the figures for the first three quarters of 2009. Again, the UK was a bright spot for Power i revenues, increasing by 31% year-on-year to $36M. AIX-based Power System revenues decreased 17% ($138M), and the Linux variant lost share by 33% ($16M).

In EMEA as a whole, IDC says that revenues for i-driven Power Systems fell by 30% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period in 2008 to $185M. Unix-based boxes decreased 20% (to $832 M) and primarily Linux-driven Power Systems gained share with a 35% increase to $101M.

Such insights illustrate the double-edged effect of the way Big Blue's bundles together its reported Power Systems revenues. While one can appreciate that sometimes woeful figures for the i can be conveniently brushed under the carpet, it also means that when the platform performs well it is impossible for IBM to tell the story.

But analyst estimates of the way the i performed in the UK last year deserve to be noted. At the very least, the platform's key strengths have meant, yet again, that it can sail on serenely through the choppiest of recessionary waters. And given the worst server market since records began, IBM should perhaps looks at just why the i can buck an overwhelmingly negative trend here in Britain.

Saying that, IBM's Power Systems story as a whole is pretty good compared to its competitors in such a depressed market. And, of course, the endless Unix war rages on.

Gartner analyst Errol Rasit says: "In 3Q08 and 3Q09, HP led the RISC and Itanium Unix market in EMEA with 35.5% and 34.4% revenue share respectively. IBM improved its market share from 27.3% in 3Q08 to 33% in 3Q09, a large shift in share in what is a largely declining market. Much of this share improvement was to the detriment of Sun's Unix position, which was 29.8% in 3Q08 down to 26.5% in 3Q09. The delay in Oracle's acquisition has not helped Sun here. Whilst there is a link between Sun's market share decline through 2009 and its competition's market share improvement, both HP and IBM have been working hard in order to capture market share. Both vendors have increased visibility of their Unix attack programs."

IDC also notes that both IBM and HP have been aggressively pursuing Sun customers in the RISC/EPIC area and that they have been having some success. In EMEA, Sun lost some market share dropping from 28.3% in the first three quarters of 2008 compared to 26.6% according to its figures.

IDC analyst Nathaniel Martinez says that the approach of the two companies has been different. IBM has attacked Sun primarily with Power, while HP has tended to adopt a two-pronged approach, leveraging x86 and Itanium together. Some large migration projects have been won by HP transferring Sun SPARC customers onto top-end x86 installations with Linux, rather than on HP UX. Apart from that, he says that HP's loss of share (31% from 33%) in the RISC/EPIC area should be linked to HP customers waiting for the new Tukwila Itanium platform due out in the next weeks.

Martinez says: "In the long run, all of those platforms – SPARC, Itanium, Power – will have to compete with the new Nehalem EX products, which Intel is now characterising with more RAS features. In the short-term, i.e. 2010, only the lower end of the EPIC/RISC world may be affected but going forward this will be a serious competitive threat as Intel appears determined to invest in getting a larger part of the pie there."

So what are the prospects for IBM's Power Systems in the battle ahead? According to Gartner's Errol Rasit, this year is looking pretty good for Big Blue.

"Customer momentum has been improving, financial markets are picking up and IBM has announced the next generation Power 7 processor will come to market," he says. "The evolution of IBM's system and technology group [STG] has improved IBM's approach to market where IBM is now more focused on competing against external competition, improving STG as a whole. For example, IBM sales reps are no longer paid commission if a Power System sale replaces the sale of a System x server. IBM's traditional large account strength, Power roadmap plans and its internal realignment mean that its outlook for 2010 is positive."

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